A survey by the UPV-EHU gives PNV the win with 32 percent of the votes, followed by EH Bildu with 24.7 percent. Governing party PSOE and PP would loose all chance to form government.
Euskobarometer July 2012
Basque Country's Basque Nationalist Party PNV would win an upcoming vote to the 75-seat Basque Parliament with 23-24 seats (32 percent) but would fall short of absolute majority, as predicted by Euskobarometer, a sociological statistical survey conducted by Department of Political Science of the University of the Basque Country.
According to the same data, PNV would be followed closely by the pro-independence Basque left-wing coalition EH Bildu with 22 seats (24.7 percent). The Basque socialist party PSE, in power since 2009, would see a significant reduction in the number of seats it occupies in the national parliament, 17 seats (20 percent) compared to the 25 seats they have now. PP would win 12-13 seats (14 percent) and minority parties Ezker Anitza and UPyD would loose their representation in the Basque chamber.
With regard to survey results per province, the PP is expected to receive the most votes in Araba, taking 25.9% of the ballot, enough to win them six or seven of the province's twenty-five parliamentary seats. The PNV, with 23% of the votes, would win six or seven seats. PSOE and EH Bildu would win the same number, six, with 20 % and 20.5% of the votes respectively.
Of the 25 delegates that will represent Biscay, ten are expected to be from the PNV, who would win 37.3% of the vote. PSE-EE would see a drop to six seats, with just 20% of the vote. EH Bildu, meanwhile, are expected to become the second strongest party in the region, with six seats and 22.2 % of the vote. PP would win three seats with 13.8% of the vote.
In Gipuzkoa meanwhile, EH Bildu is predicted to win10 of the total 25 seats. The nationalist coalition would win 36.6% of the votes according to the poll, putting them ahead of the PNV who would win seven seats with 24.7% of the vote. The PSE would become the province's third party, with 18.4% of the vote and five parliamentary delegates. The PP would have three seats thanks to 10.7% of the ballot.
The number of people declining to vote will remain at around 35%.